Brexit to hit north-east and Midlands hardest, says secret analysis

The research suggests that the option of staying in the single market and customs union, which has been rejected by ministers, would be the least damaging but would still see growth across different parts of the country between 1% and 3% lower than current forecasts.

"Government analysis suggests that Northern Ireland could be cost up to 12 per cent of its GDP".

Sky News and the BBC have both published details from the controversial leaked Brexit impact assessment, and it makes grim reading for every region and country that makes up the UK. "We are not expecting a no deal scenario", he added.

Northern Ireland could also face a GDP slump of 12 per cent, which could be exacerbated if the Cabinet fails to establish a common position on the border with Ireland.

The leak came as MPs were believed to have been seen the assessments in private sessions in the House of Commons on Wednesday. The analyses found Brexit would leave the United Kingdom worse off under three possible scenarios: a comprehensive free trade deal, single market access and no deal at all.

According to Sky News, the report contains a region-by-region breakdown of potential GDP losses under three scenarios: staying in the single market, leaving with a free-trade deal, and a no-deal Brexit. They are still keeping no deal on the table despite how crippling it would be to the regional economy. The Tories are putting everything on the line because they do not care about the lives and livelihoods of the people of the UK.

"The government need to start being clear what they are fighting for".

Tánaiste calls on Britain to drop tough talk on Brexit
Brexit to hit north-east and Midlands hardest, says secret analysis

The report says that there is no scenario in which the United Kingdom will be better off by leaving, but "no deal", which would see the United Kingdom revert to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, would have a severe impact on the region.

The analysis suggests that London, which voted overwhelmingly to remain in the European Union, will get off most lightly from Brexit, with growth reduced by just 3.5 per cent, even with no deal.

North-east England, the West Midlands and Northern Ireland will suffer the biggest hit to economic growth after the UK's withdrawal from the European Union, according to secret Brexit impact studies released to MPs by the Government.

The figures for Scotland in all three scenarios are worse than for the United Kingdom as a whole, which was predicted to have 8% lower GDP with no deal, 5% lower if the United Kingdom negotiated a free trade deal, and 2% lower if it adheres to the rules of the single market.

Asked during Prime Minister's Questions if she would see off any "threats" from the EU, Ms May said: "We will be robust in our arguments".

Meanwhile, the government's 11-strong Brexit cabinet sub-committee will meet on Wednesday and Thursday in an attempt to agree a vision of post-Brexit relations with the EU. "And is this too high a price to pay to stop a Tory civil war breaking out?" he said.

  • Joey Payne